about

forecastverification.com was founded in 2016 by Dr Jan Verkade. In his work, Jan found that only few organizations that practice forecasting, also verify the quality of their forecasts. Reasons for that often include lack of resources, expertise or both. This is a gap that can be filled with help of forecastverification.com. We have the expertise and the experience to efficiently – and independently – verify your forecasts.

About the founder

Jan is a hydrologist with a keen interest in real-time hydrological forecasting. He gained his expertise in a large number of research and consultancy projects for multiple clients both within and outside of The Netherlands. Jan has a cum laude M.Sc. degree in Water Resources Management (awarded by Delft University of Technology) as well as an M.A. degree in International Relations (awarded by DCU, Dublin). In 2015, he completed his PhD research into predictive hydrological uncertainty. His research interests include: what is the probability of flooding in the near future? what are the benefits of expressing predictions in terms of probability? how do we evaluate probability forecasts?

In addition to being the founder of forecastverification.com, Jan works as a consulting hydrologist at Deltares, the Dutch national R&D institution in the field of water management.

Curriculum vitae

Jan’s curriculum vitae can be downloaded from his LinkedIn profile page.

legal stuff

forecastverification.com is registered at the Chamber of Commerce in The Hague, The Netherlands (number 675 442 66). Its VAT registration number is available at request.

online coordinates

Jan Verkade, founder: jan@forecastverification.com

General enquiries: info@forecastverification.com

+31 6 4546 2969 (mobile phone, whatsapp)
skype: jsverkade

postal and visiting address

Prinses Marijkelaan 15
2635 JH Den Hoorn
The Netherlands

Selected publications

 

    • De Kleermaeker, S. H. and Verkade, J. S.: A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts, in ISCRAM2013, Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, Baden-Baden., 2013.

 

    • Haasnoot, M., Verkade, J. S. and Bruijn, K. M. de: HABITAT, a spatial analysis tool for environmental impact and damage assessment, in HydroInformatics, Concepcion, Chile., 2009.

 

    • Hu, Y., Schmeits, M. J., Jan van Andel, S., Verkade, J. S., Xu, M., Solomatine, D. P. and Liang, Z.: A Stratified Sampling Approach for Improved Sampling from a Calibrated Ensemble Forecast Distribution, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(9), 2405–2417, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0205.1, 2016.

 

    • Leahy, C. P., Pagano, T., Elliott, J. F., Sooriyakumaran, S., Schellekens, J. and Verkade, J. S.: Seven day flow forecasting using hydrological models and Numerical Weather Prediction Rainfall Forecasts, Adelaide, Australia., 2010.

 

    • López López, P., Verkade, J. S., Weerts, A. H. and Solomatine, D. P.: Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11(4), 3811–3855, doi:10.5194/hessd-11-3811-2014, 2014.

 

    • Pagano, T. C., Wood, A. W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Clark, M. P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., Sorooshian, S. and Verkade, J. S.: Challenges of Operational River Forecasting, J. Hydrometeor, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1, 2014.

 

    • Pappenberger, F., Verkade, J. S. and Wetterhall, F.: Epistemic uncertainties in operational flood forecasting, in Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM2014), University of Liverpool, UK., 2014.

 

    • Verkade, J. S.: On the value of flood warning systems, Master of Science dissertation, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands., 2008.

 

    • Verkade, J. S.: Estimating real-time predictive hydrological uncertainty, Ph.D. dissertation, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands, March. [online] Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.4233/uuid:a7e8ac36-4bdb-4231-a11e-d46778b2ae4a, 2015.

 

    • Verkade, J. S. and Schellekens, J.: Estimation and visualisation of predictive hydrological uncertainty in Ovens river, Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands., 2010.

 

    • Verkade, J. S. and Werner, M. G. F.: Estimating the benefits of probabilistic flood warning systems in terms of flood risk, in Workshop on Post-processing and Verification of hydrological ensemble predictions, Delft, The Netherlands., 2011a.

 

    • Verkade, J. S. and Werner, M. G. F.: Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(12), 3751–3765, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3751-2011, 2011b.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Brown, J. D., Davids, F., Reggiani, P. and Weerts, A. H.: Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts; a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine, Journal of Hydrology, submitted.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Gelder, P. H. A. J. M. van, Reggiani, P. and Weerts, A. H.: HUP NL: probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian theory, in Proceedings of the 2008 NCR Fall Meeting, p. 42, NCR, Dalfsen, The Netherlands., 2008.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Weijs, S. and Weerts, A. H.: Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty using Quantile Regression, in Workshop on Post-processing and Verification of hydrological ensemble predictions, Delft, The Netherlands., 2011a.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Schellekens, J. and Leahy, C. P.: Estimation and visualisation of predictive hydrological uncertainty for Ovens River, Australia, in Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 13, pp. EGU2011–2918–2, Vienna, Austria. [online] Available from: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-2918-2.pdf, 2011b.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Brown, J. D., Weerts, A. and Reggiani, P.: An evaluation of the combined benefits of post-processing forcing and flow ensembles when conducting ensemble streamflow prediction, with application to the River Rhine, in 2012 General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union, vol. Vol. 14, pp. EGU2012–10573–1. [online] Available from: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2012/EGU2012-10573-1.pdf, 2012.

 

    • Verkade, J. S., Brown, J. D., Reggiani, P. and Weerts, A. H.: Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales, Journal of Hydrology, 501, 73–91, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.039, 2013.

 

    • Voisin, N., Verkade, J. S. and Ramos, M. H.: HEPEX Science and Implementation plan: Statistical post-processing, www.hepex.org [online] Available from: http://hepex.irstea.fr/hepex-sip-topic-post-processing-33/ (Accessed 8 October 2013), 2013.

 

    • Weerts, A. H., Winsemius, H. C. and Verkade, J. S.: Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, California, USA., 2010.

 

    • Weerts, A. H., Winsemius, H. C. and Verkade, J. S.: Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(1), 255–265, doi:10.5194/hess-15-255-2011, 2011.

 

    • Werner, K., Verkade, J. S. and Pagano, T. C.: Application of Hydrological Forecast Verification Information, in Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, edited by Q. Duan, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, A. Wood, H. L. Cloke, and J. C. Schaake, pp. 1–21, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg. [online] Available from: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_7-1 (Accessed 26 October 2016), 2016.

 

  • Werner, M. G. F., Verkade, J. S. and Mohamed, Y. A.: Flood forecasting in developing countries: challenges and sustainability, in Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 13, pp. EGU2011-13163, Vienna, Austria. [online] Available from: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-13163.pdf, 2011.