For a few months now, I have participated in the Good Judgment Open (GJO) forecasting tournament. One of the questions I am trying my luck at is, How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center? GJ Open, 2022 The answer should be […]
Verification of US National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019
Introduction Post Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida, back in September 2017, I analysed the quality of the forecasts that had been issued by the US National Hurricane Center. When Hurricane Dorian made its way to the US coast, I showed the Irma blog post to my friend Chris, a traffic modeler and forecaster. In response, […]
How many hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season?
Below is my attempt at answering one of the questions asked in the Good Judgment Open forecasting tournament. In full, the question reads: How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center? Good Judgment (c) Open My answer is based on three elements: […]
Verifying hurricane Irma’s projected path
By Jan Verkade (firstname.lastname@example.org) Between Wednesday, August 30th and Tuesday, September 12, the US National Hurricane Center issued 52 advisories pertaining to Tropical Storm and Hurricane Irma. The NHC advisories described her observed and projected location as well as her characteristics. They were posted on the web in a number of formats including text bulletins […]
At forecastverification.com, we use a mixture of software tools. Here’s a brief overview: Ubuntu and bash R, RStudio and Shiny LateX and markdown Delft-FEWS wgrib degrib wget
On using verification information
Recently, Kevin Werner, Tom Pagano and myself completed a book chapter on the use of verification information. The “Handbook of hydro-meteorological forecasting” will be published in 2017.